Merge branch 'master' of github.com:IvanMalison/dotfiles

dotfiles/lib/python/ohell.py

@@ -0,0 +1,261 @@
+import collections
+import random
+import pprint
+
+do_print = False
+
+def maybe_print(*args):
+    if do_print:
+        print(*args)
+
+
+def falling_factorial(n, k):
+    current = n
+    product = 1
+    for _ in range(k):
+        product *= current
+        current -= 1
+
+
+def one_hand_with_lead_odds(card, num_players, is_trump=False, revealed_card=6, revealed_in_suit=False):
+    num_stronger_cards = 14 - card
+    if is_trump:
+        if card < revealed_card:
+            num_stronger_cards -= 1
+    elif is_trump is None:
+        if revealed_in_suit:
+            if card < revealed_card:
+                num_stronger_cards -= 1
+    else:
+        num_stronger_cards += 12
+
+    odds_no_stronger_card_out = 1.0
+
+    num_cards_remaining = 50
+    num_weaker_cards_remaining = num_cards_remaining - num_stronger_cards
+
+    for i in range(num_players-1):
+        odds_no_stronger_card_out *= num_weaker_cards_remaining/num_cards_remaining
+        num_weaker_cards_remaining -= 1
+        num_cards_remaining -= 1
+
+    return odds_no_stronger_card_out
+
+
+def expected_value_of_one_bid(*args, **kwargs):
+    win_prob = one_hand_with_lead_odds(*args, **kwargs)
+    one_ev = win_prob + ((1 - win_prob) * -1)
+    zero_ev = -win_prob
+
+    return (one_ev - zero_ev, win_prob, one_ev, zero_ev)
+
+
+def odds_for_number_of_players(num_players, is_trump=False):
+    for card in range(2, 15):
+        print(card)
+        print(expected_value_of_one_bid(card, num_players, is_trump=is_trump))
+
+
+def random_permutation_of_size(n):
+    remaining = list(range(n))
+    for i in range(n-1, -1, -1):
+        yield remaining.pop(random.randint(0, i))
+
+
+def random_permutation(the_list):
+    for index in random_permutation_of_size(len(the_list)):
+        yield the_list[index]
+
+
+deck_of_cards = [
+    (number, suit)
+    for number in range(2, 15)
+    for suit in range(4)
+]
+
+
+def compare_cards(card1, card2, trump_suit, led_suit):
+    card1value, card1suit = card1
+    card2value, card2suit = card2
+    if card1suit == card2suit and card1suit in (trump_suit, led_suit):
+        return card1value - card2value
+
+    if card1suit == trump_suit:
+        return 1
+
+    if card2suit == trump_suit:
+        return -1
+
+    if card1suit == led_suit:
+        return 1
+
+    if card2suit == led_suit:
+        return -1
+
+    return 0
+
+
+lost_hands = collections.defaultdict(int)
+won_hands = collections.defaultdict(int)
+
+
+performance_by_player_card = collections.defaultdict(
+    lambda: collections.defaultdict(lambda: collections.defaultdict(lambda: collections.defaultdict(int)))
+)
+
+
+def play_hand(player_order, player_to_strategy, player_scores, score_first_only=True):
+    bids = {}
+    shuffled_deck = list(random_permutation(deck_of_cards))
+    trump_card = shuffled_deck[len(player_order)]
+    trump_suit = None if trump_card[0] in [11, 12, 13] else trump_card[1]
+    led_suit = shuffled_deck[0][1]
+    highest_card = (0, led_suit)
+    winning_player = player_order[0]
+    maybe_print("Trump is {}, {} leads".format(trump_suit, player_order[0]))
+    if (trump_suit is not None and shuffled_deck[0][1] != trump_suit and
+        shuffled_deck[0][0] <= 8 and shuffled_deck[0][0] > 5):
+        # import ipdb; ipdb.set_trace()
+        pass
+    for player, card in zip(player_order, shuffled_deck):
+        if compare_cards(card, highest_card, trump_suit, led_suit) > 0:
+            highest_card = card
+            winning_player = player
+        bids[player] = player_to_strategy[player](card, trump_card, bids, len(player_order))
+        maybe_print("{} got {} and bid {}".format(player, card, bids[player]))
+    maybe_print("{} won the hand with {}".format(winning_player, highest_card))
+
+    for player in player_order:
+        bid = bids[player]
+        score = 0
+        if winning_player == player:
+            if bid == 1:
+                score = 1
+                won_hands[player] += 1
+            else:
+                score = -1
+                lost_hands[player] += 1
+        else:
+            if bid != 0:
+                score = -1
+                lost_hands[player] += 1
+
+        player_scores[player] += score
+
+        trump_of_card = None if trump_suit is None else shuffled_deck[0][1] == trump_suit
+        performance_dict = performance_by_player_card[player][trump_of_card][shuffled_deck[0][0]]
+        performance_dict[score] += 1
+        performance_dict["total"] += score
+
+        if score_first_only:
+            break
+
+
+def optimal_strategy(card, trump_card, bids, number_of_players):
+    trump_suit = None if trump_card[0] in [11, 12, 13] else trump_card[1]
+    card_is_trump = card[1] == trump_card[1]
+    if trump_suit == None:
+        card_is_trump = None
+
+    if len(bids) == 0:
+        odds = expected_value_of_one_bid(
+            card[0], number_of_players, is_trump=card_is_trump,
+            revealed_card=trump_card[0], revealed_in_suit=card[1] == trump_card[1]
+        )
+        return 1 if odds[0] > 0 else 0
+
+    if card_is_trump:
+        return handle_non_first_bid(card, trump_card, bids, number_of_players)
+    else:
+        return 0
+
+
+def handle_non_first_bid(card, trump_card, bids, number_of_players):
+    count_greater = 14 - card[0]
+    count_smaller = card[0] - 2
+
+    if trump_card[0] < card[0]:
+        count_smaller -= 1
+    else:
+        count_greater -= 1
+
+    odds_of_random_trump_smaller = float(count_smaller) / (count_smaller + count_greater)
+    bid_sum = sum(bids.values())
+
+    if bid_sum == 0:
+        return 1
+    elif bid_sum == 1 and odds_of_random_trump_smaller > (float(1)/3):
+        return 1
+    elif bid_sum == 2 and count_greater <= 3:
+        return 1
+    elif count_greater <= 1:
+        return 1
+
+    return 0
+
+
+def mom_strat(card, trump_card, bids, number_of_players):
+    trump_suit = None if trump_card[0] in [11, 12, 13] else trump_card[1]
+    card_is_trump = card[1] == trump_card[1]
+    if trump_suit == None:
+        card_is_trump = None
+
+    if len(bids) > 0:
+        if card_is_trump:
+            return handle_non_first_bid(card, trump_card, bids, number_of_players)
+        return 0
+
+    if trump_suit == None:
+        if card[0] >= 5:
+            return 1
+
+    if card_is_trump:
+        return 1
+
+    if card[0] >= 13:
+        return 1
+
+    return 0
+
+
+player_strategies = {
+    "optimal": optimal_strategy,
+    "mom1": mom_strat,
+    "mom2": mom_strat,
+    "mom3": mom_strat,
+}
+
+
+def simulate_hands(strats, number_of_hands):
+    player_order = list(player_strategies.keys())
+    scores = collections.defaultdict(int)
+    for _ in range(number_of_hands):
+        play_hand(player_order, strats, scores)
+        player_order = player_order[-1:] + player_order[:-1]
+
+    print(scores)
+    return scores
+
+
+odds_for_number_of_players(4, is_trump=False)
+print("score")
+scores = simulate_hands(player_strategies, 100000)
+highest_score = -10000000
+winner = None
+for player, score in scores.items():
+    if score > highest_score:
+        highest_score = score
+        winner = player
+print("{} won with {}".format(winner, highest_score))
+print("won")
+print(won_hands)
+print("lost")
+print(lost_hands)
+
+# for player, by_trump in performance_by_player_card.items():
+#     print(player)
+#     for trump_type, card_to_score in by_trump.items():
+#         print("{}: {}".format(trump_type, sum(card_to_score.values())))
+
+pprint.pprint(performance_by_player_card["optimal"][None])
+pprint.pprint(performance_by_player_card["mom1"][None])